CO2 EMISSION RESTRAINT The sustainable per capita limit The sustainable C02 emission threshold The individual C02 emission quota The alternative to individual emission restraint

THE SUSTAINABLE CO2 EMISSION THRESHOLD

Global warming, the continuing increase in the Earth's temperature, is likely already to be causing irreparable damage to the Earth in the form of extinctions of plant and animal species. It is therefore important that we do not continue to contribute to global warming by emitting greenhouse gases at rates high enough to cause atmospheric concentrations of these gases to rise. If atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are held at their present levels, global temperatures will eventually stop rising. From then on, presumably there will be no further irreparable damage and no further increase in the probability of some additional large scale environmental failure, at least from this particular cause. The rate at which the various greenhouse gases may be emitted without causing their atmospheric concentrations to rise can be calculated using figures contained in the Technical Assessment prepared by Working Group One of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990. Here we consider only CO2, ignoring all the other greenhouse gases.

Having established (within the limits of scientific uncertainty) how much CO2 can be emitted globally every year without causing atmospheric CO2 concentrations to rise, we can divide this quantity by the probable number of people on Earth, and thus establish how much each of us can emit per year. For convenience, this quantity is then divided into smaller, whimsical units (which I have invented) known as dAubs. The limit to the quantity of CO2 each of us can emit per year, determined as above, turns out to lie somewhere between five and ten dAubs. However, there is an argument (detailed below) for current over-emitters temporarily to regard the limit as lying somewhere between five and eleven dAubs per year.

People in developed countries currently emit far more than any of the quantities referred to above. At the time of writing, the average in the United States is about 97 dAubs. The average in the UK is about 47 dAubs, which the government has committed itself to trying to reduce to the 1990 level of about 44 dAubs. However, most people on Earth (living mainly in undeveloped countries) already emit less than ten dAubs. If the true limit happens to be ten dAubs, these people are therefore leaving some of their entitlement unused. This possible unused entitlement is sufficient to allow the remainder of the Earth's population one extra dAub. This makes the limit for existing over-emitters lie somewhere between five and eleven dAubs per year.

There is clearly an obligation to keep personal CO2 emissions below some appropriate level. In the absence of any means of compulsion, it is up to each individual to decide what limit is suitable.

Non-fossil fuels (like wood and bio-diesel) make no long-term contribution to global warming and therefore count as zero.

THE PERSONAL CARBON DIOXIDE QUOTA

The personal carbon dioxide quota is the maximum quantity of CO2 each of us may emit into the atmosphere every year without causing the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere to rise above its present level. The quota is measured in a whimsical unit (which I have invented) called dAubs. Because of scientific uncertainty, the quota is known only to lie somewhere between five and eleven dAubs per year.

As an alternative to manually adding up emissions using the figures above, there is a JavaScript emissions calculator.

EACH OF THE FOLLOWING ACTIVITIES EMITS ONE DAUB OF CO2:

GAS: (the gaseous stuff)

Burning 82.92 cubic metres
  or 2,930.05 cubic feet
  or    29.3 in 100s of cubic feet
  or 3,225.6 MJ
  or   896 kWh
  or    36.13 therms
.....................................................of domestic gas.

ELECTRICITY:

Using 298.67 kWh
......................................................of electricity.

PETROL:

Burning 101.82 litres
  or     22.38 gallons (UK ones)
...........................................................of petrol.

DIESEL:

Burning 86 litres
  or    18.9 gallons (UK ones)
...........................................................of diesel.

AIR TRAVEL:

Travelling 1,898.31 km
  or       1,178.85 miles (UK ones)
..............................................................by air.

AIR FREIGHT:

Transporting one tonne 270.86 km
  or                   168.2 miles (UK ones)
..............................................................by air.

THE ALTERNATIVES TO INDIVIDUAL RESTRAINT

For anyone who doesn't want global destruction to continue, the situation can seem hopeless. However, there is a way for the individual to save the world. Since it is we individuals (mainly in the developed world) who are destroying the world, we can just stop doing it. If we don't stop, the world will obviously continue to be wiped out. No amount of money given to organisations, or persuading of governments or businesses or each other, nor any other action, will prevent the destruction unless we stop causing it.

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